[679:460] Of COP 11 of UNFCCC
Unfortunately, like the upcoming World Trade Organization ministerial meeting in Hong Kong, this climate change meeting is expected to fail unless a compromise is achieved. The main problem is, as it has always been for the past few years, the United States refusal to commit itself into any treaty that will put a cap on its greenhouse gases emission.
Some has insisted the parties to carry on without the US participation. That might be the most viable solution at the moment. Others on the other hand are calling for a more lenient targets to persuade to US to join in.
I definitely believe that in order to combat climate change effectively, all major emitters need to join in. That includes the US. China is the distant second largest greenhouse emitter. Tony Blair with confidence that I admire goes further by stating "there will be a binding international agreement to succeed Kyoto when the Protocol expires in 2012 that will include all major economies."
I don't share his optimism. In my opinion, the only way that is possible is to see a US president that will agree to Kyoto's underlying principles. A person like John McCain or Hillary Clinton. I truly hope John McCain will make it to the White House in 2008.
Given the gloom prospect of failure, I'd be happy even with the most modest success coming out from the COP. It'd be a tragery to see a COP 10 in Buenos Aires to repeat itself in Montreal.
In the meantime, it seems that China is enjoying the moral high ground. Sometime earlier, China urged the US to ratify the Kyoto Protocol. This urging is important because it may signal that China is willing to commit itself seriously to a post-Kyoto treaty to cap its emissions. That itself is hope.
p/s - happy birthday to you, happy birthday to you, happy birthday to the __earthinc, happy birthday to you.
Yup. Four years of the __earthinc and still wanting to marry a tree.
The League of Nations failed without US support. We need the US to back this.
By johnleemk, at 01 December, 2005 01:19
Do you really think it will work should US rectify the protocol?
By Anonymous, at 01 December, 2005 03:53
anon, I have my doubts about Kyoto because it asks too little while it's costly. But at least with the US and others like China and India and Brazil etc on board, the chances of success is higher.
Without them however, all Kyoto-like efforts will suffer from free-rider problem.
Ask yourself about the effort to curb CFC (otherwise known as the Montreal Protocol) would it work if there was a major free-rider refusing to adhere to a ban of CFC?
By __earth, at 01 December, 2005 06:52
Well, Montreal Protocol is a much more easier task than Kyoto. I supported all these moves but I just doubt the effort these countries would put in to make it a success even though they 'committed' to it. There are always 'reasons' of failure... Well, may be I'm too pessimistic.
By Anonymous, at 06 December, 2005 04:00
