Nobel prize winner and author of the highly regarded Globalization and Its Discontent, Prof. Joseph Stiglitz will be giving a lecture here in Michigan roughly in two weeks time. He and along with two others won the prize for economics in 2001 for their research on asymmetric information.

I've read Globalization and Its Discontent long ago but I borrowed it from the library. It is an enlightening book though I do feel the title is a misnomer. It should be International Financial Institutions and Its Discontent or something like that. Nonetheless, I need to buy it, meet the Prof and get it signed!

This time, I promise myself to be at the lecture hall an hour earlier and I'm going to sit in the front row. Maybe second or third but you get the idea. I'm sure the lecture will be as packed as Prof. Noam Chomsky's and I really hate standing by the door.

Details at Michigan Economics.

And w00t! 500th post. Another 500 to my 1000th post. Also, another 100006505606161000 t0 the 100006505606161500th post - quite meaningless actually.

Very soon, in less than 24 hours, the Iraqis will be able to decide the future of their country. Finally for the first time in an episode of a tediously long drama, they will be able to participate in a countrywide democratic process.

Earlier, I had actually thought that this election would elect the head of the state and other high state functions, similar to the November US presidential election. I was wrong.

Instead, the individuals elected into the Iraqi National Assembly will discuss and draft a new permanent constitution for Iraq. Later, the constitution will be voted by the Iraqis in a referendum. Moreover, the National Assembly will act as a transitional government, replacing the interim government. Once a version of the constitution is voted and agreed upon, the transitional government will be dissolved, making way for a permanent government. According to Wikipedia, the referendum must be held by October this year.

Wonderful isn’t it? It sounds so soon whereas the occupation seems to occupy reality ages ago.

In retrospect, I believed the war was unjustified. I still believe the war is unjustified. The Bush administration had blatantly lied in the face of public scrutiny and then went ahead to drive its war vehicle despite the red light could clearly be seen from even the back seat. In spite of that, one can’t push away the notion that Iraq, in some dimensions -- for instance, pertaining to democracy and the environment -- is improving.

Furthermore, what’s done is done and there is no need to lament too much about the past. The only acceptable conduct now is to make it the best out of the worst. This progress in Iraq is something that we all should be smiling for. Never mind which side you and I, they and us stand on the issue.

Meanwhile, the resistance movement has pledged to disrupt the upcoming election. It is unfortunate but comprehensible. It is imperative nevertheless for Iraqi to vote and not cave in to the threat. Submission to fear will lead to a slower resolution. The Coalition troops (really, the US and the UK. Alright, alright. And Tonga and Solomon Islands and...) have the obligation to remove the fear and they have imposed a curfew in order to prevent attack from occurring, or perhaps, more realistically, limits aggression.

Saddest part of this desert opera is not the threat of disruption by the resisting forces. Rather, minus the unlawful invasion itself, it is the decision of major Sunni groups to boycott the election. It is but a fool who would disfranchise himself from his own future. This will be the Iraqi Sunni greatest undoing.

We could only hope for the groups to change heart though I’m skeptical that would happen. I am, however, optimistic for Sunday. Indeed, we all should hope this event will go through without too much unnecessary cost.

p/s - ehem.

More on starwars.com. (via)
pp/s - the 2005 Environmental Sustainability Index is finally out. Read entry [495] and [496] for context. Malaysia got the 38th rung, moving 30 places from its initial position in the 2002 index. Malaysia also is the most environmental sustainable in ASEAN though issues like Bakun, Broga and Tioman tend to make me skeptical of the report by a tiny bit.

According to the report, there are five variables and one of them is Social and Institutional Capability. This variable fit exactly of what I talked about in the two entries of mine. They however went further by including other variables and the inclusion of four other variables will certainly explain the variability (the R-square for those of you who are familiar with econometrics) much better.

First off, I don't watch SpongeBob. It's just not my taste and I don't know anybody with my age that would watch it.



But, SpongeBob said:

I pledge to have respect for people whose abilities, beliefs, culture, race, sexual identity or other characteristics are different from my own.

And BAMN (not to be confused with BAMN, the U of M Ann Arbor campuswide party that is known to commit itself in excessively loud deplorable shouting match instead of a civilized political discussion)! The fundamentalist rightist goes nut!

Now, the gay movement is having a field day by criticizing the rightist attack on a cartoon character. Tsk, tsk, tsk. I'm just glad I'm not in the middle of a potentially ugly but silly fray.

I still remember the strong Atlantic breeze and the smell of the ocean.


It felt so good and how I'd wish that I had not the need to leave the beach. And now, I have to put up with the snow and the cold.


I really don't mind a bit of snow here and there but too much snow really suck.

The latter photo was taken almost two days after the whole Midwest and New England had a taste of boring snowstorm. That's why in the photo, the sky is as blue as it can be. Two days later, and up until now, the sky is gray and you can bet it's going to be gray tomorrow, the day afer tomorrow, the next day after the day after tomorrow and hey, the next thing you know, it's Fimbulwinter.

p/s - well, okay. The sky is clear today. But I still bet it's going to be gray tomorrow.

In my previous entry, I said that I suspect opportunity cost plays an important role between development and the environment and a country will only turn to environmental issues when it reaches certain economic level. I continued further by saying, a possible correlation between wealth of nations with environmental commitment could be a possible proof.

And guess what?

There actually is an index that could be used as a proxy for environmental commitment. I found this out after browsing the New York Times (reg. req.). It - the Environmental Sustainability Index - is produced by people at Yale and Columbia for the World Economic Forum, first published in 2002 and the 2005 issue has just been released earlier. The 2002 index is located at Columbia University server. Index for 2005 should be up soon.

In general, countries with high GDP per capita have higher ranking when compared to countries with lower GDP per capita.

There are a few wildcards however, like Belgium being 125th out of 142 in the 2002 index and Uruguay at sixth. I had expected a country like Uruguay, which has GDP per capita a bit lower than Malaysia, to be in the middle of the table and Belgium to do much better. The Arab nations, despite their high GDP per capita, linger at the bottom of the pit and they provide seemingly contradicting proof to the idea presented in the previous entry.

Perhaps, their cost of forgone economic benefit is higher than most people. It needs to be said that the opportunity cost idea is valid when all things are equal. The opportunity cost from one subject to the next does vary and this might explain why certain countries differ from their expected ranks. Furthermore, there are several issues with the methodology of the survey and this affects the accuracy of the index. The Times article states a few. One of the them:

He also said a system that rated Russia, whose populated western regions have undergone extraordinary environmental degradation, as having greater environmental sustainability than the United States had inherent weaknesses.

At 33, Russia's ranking, Mr. Esty said, is in large part a consequence of the country's vast size. While it "has terrible pollution problems" in the western industrial heartland, he said, its millions of unsettled or sparsely settled acres of Asian taiga mean "it has vast, untrammeled resources and more clean water than anywhere in the world." So, he added, "on average, Russia ends up looking better than it does to someone who lives in western Russia."

Alrighty, I’m going for breakfast. I won't commit myself to any environmental course if my stomach is growling.

p/s - ReMag 5 is out. I'm not quite satisfied with the end product but more tweaks should happen soon.
pp/s - I wanted to play World of Warcraft so badly but the delay is too much for me to handle. I've thus canceled the Amazon order.

There seems to be a strong relationship between the level of economic development and environmental protection. I've always suspected this and a post in a forum reminded me of it. The poster presented the idea and asked why that seems to be so. I offered her a short answer. A few hours later, I sat down somewhere and gave it a further consideration quietly.

I think the relationship between the two aspects is actually the opportunity cost - the cost of investing in one variable is the forgone benefit of other variable. In our context, if a country is poor and lack capital, the society there will be more concerned with wealth buildup instead of safeguarding the Earth. The cost of protecting the environment in term of development is too great; that country cannot afford to protect the environment at the expense of development.

The enforcement of environmental laws needs resource for implementation. If a country has no sufficient resource or wealth, then environmental laws enforcement greatly forgoes the benefit of accumulating capital. That is, the resource will be better put in use in improving the economy. Therefore, better attention will be given to economic issues instead of environmental ones, given that a country or a person is poor. Now, if that is so, the only way to instill the care for the environment is to reduce the forgone benefit of economic growth while engaging in environmental protection.

The reduction of forgone benefit cost is possible if wealth increases. This grows from the idea of diminishing returns - the more one has of a good, the less one wants more of it. In other words, another additional some sort of unit of wealth will have less benefit to the society of great wealth than to some improvised populace. Hence, as wealth increases, the cost of forgone benefit decreases.

Furthermore, environmental protection will only come when the cost of forgoing economic pursue is lower (or possibly lower or equal to) than the cost of forgoing environmental protection. Hence, if one cares for the environment, accumulation of wealth should be paramount because the accumulation of wealth reduces the cost of forgoing development.

One possible supporting proof is the possible correlation between wealth of countries with the strength of environmental laws and its enforcement; developed nations do seem to have stricter environmental requirements relative to poor countries. It would be interesting to see if there is an actual data set on this.

So, let's all get rich in the name of the environment!

I'm not quite certain on this however. Some variable must have been left unconsidered and thus, I dare not assert this model as perfect.

p/s - there seems to be a character encoding problem with this new template.
pp/s - godddamn! This entry took some serious proofread. When I first read the completed version, I was lost in my own words!
ppp/s - the Malay version of Windows XP will be shipped soon! But, given that the OS uses confusing Malay terms and it's sort of XP lite, I'll stick with the English version, thank you. (Via)
p4/s - this is, um, retarded.
p5/s - updated the about section.

Test. Test!

p/s - and the third time the charm.
pp/s - well, maybe fourth. Seems to be a problem with IE but Mozilla rules!
p3/s - at risk of being a narcissist, I'm already falling with love with my own site!
p4/s - more test.

I had been holding the degree application form for almost three months and finally handed it in last week. Boy, it took great convicing. I only decided to officially apply for graduation after three months of consternation. Consternation might not be the right word but the real world is scary nonetheless.

And then, I received an email from the auditors' office:

[...]

Date: January 18, 2005

Name: Mohd Hafiz Noor Shams
ID#: ********
Degree & Degree Period: Bachelor of Science, May 2005
Status as of end of: Fall 2004

You have completed the process of applying for your degree.

[...]

CONCENTRATION/MINOR REQUIREMENTS

[...]

Economics - Fulfilled

Most of my colleagues in economics are planning of doing their graduate work. I'm not sure whether I want to follow them to hell just yet. My game theory class, of which I almost failed, and later I found out, full of graduate students, was crazy. So, I've sort of tasted graduate classes and it left a sour taste in my mouth, and to my grades. But whatever it may be, it has been a long and winding road.

I need to listen to the Beatles more often.

Alright, back to some accounting work.

p/s - Last week, the American Meteorological Society met in San Diego.

One of the findings presented was the relationship between greenhouse gases and drought. According to the model, there is a positive correlation between the two. Greater quantity of greenhouse gases leads to more drought.

This depiction of linear trends in the Palmer Drought Severity Index from 1948 to 2002 shows drying (reds and pinks) across much of Canada, Europe, Asia, and Africa and moistening (green) across parts of the United States, Argentina, Scandinavia, and western Australia. (Illustration courtesy Aiguo Dai and the American Meteorological Society.)

More could be read here.

One word. Crazy.

And here we are.

John Boone in the much-acclaimed sci-fi Red Mars said the exact phrase. Those words were expressed after months of journeying ended with him and the others that he led landed on the red rusty planets.

If there were people on the probe Huygens, "and here we are" would be a befitting thing to say.

First, Amazon delayed my WoW order by 2 weeks.

Second, my ethernet suddenly card died out on me. Now sure whether it went kaput or it just decided to take a vacation to somewhere but it seems that the archangel has got the best of it.

Third, rain in January?

I know California is green-friendly and all but humane dog law that grants certain rights to all dogkind?

Look:

SAN FRANCISCO - In this famously dog-friendly city, dog owners are "pet guardians," the local shelter keeps strays in "apartments" — and, as of Tuesday, man's best friend is entitled to certain perks.
A new "backyard dog" law says canines are entitled to a change of water once a day, palatable and nutritious food in a non-tipping bowl, and a dog house with a top, bottom and three sides. Tying up the dog is highly discouraged.

I'm all for humane treatment of all living things but a weird law is not my cup of tea. Don't the legislators in California have something better to do, like, say, requiring people to brush their teeth daily?

And I thought only in SimCity where this type of stuff happens.

I'm still not over Florida and neither should you!


Sunset, needless to say. I was on an airboat on some lake. I can't recall the name of the lake but I do know the lake is somewhere near Orlando.


Don't you love the hue of the red sunset. Okay, admittedly, it can't be seen well in the photo but it was admirable nonetheless. And might I add, much more admirable than Ann Arbor's cursed sky.


This was the opposite horizon; bluish verses redish and azurish in the middlish. What gibberish!

I'll put some of the pictures I took at Florida (and Atlanta, Georgia) in the Gallery this upcoming weekend if Amazon.com fails to deliver my World of Warcraft on timely manner. Otherwise, prepare to meet your doom Orcs!

Forward Wisconsin!


With a cow...

p/s - how bad the rain in California is.

The tsunami brought terrible consequences to many in Asia. Lives were lost, properties damaged and economies slowed. All the while, many others are focused on the destruction that Mother Nature brought against our habitat. However, many have overlooked the benefits of the destruction.

First off, the tsunami probably reduced the number of fishing fleets in the Indian Ocean. In fact, this tsunami acts as a temporary environmental restriction imposed on fishing industry. As a direct result, the amount of harvest will fall. This gives any threatened or endangered fish a chance to recover for at least a couple of months. With reproduction rate possibly higher than the harvest rate, the stock size will increase, making future extraction more sustainable.

Then there are the beaches. All efforts on reclamation and most structures built near ocean have been razed down to the earth. There are satellite photos to confirm this. There is almost nothing there right now. Hence, some might say the incident in Asia and, to a smaller extent Africa, brings back innocence to the beaches. But of course, the reversion was anything but cleanly done. It seems that it is us that need to clean up after Gaia, unfortunately.

With the reversion done, it gives the people in the affected area to rebuild their lives. Specifically, a planned reconstruction of cities and towns is now possible. Previously, most of the hit cities and towns was (or are, I am not sure) disorganized. The places were worse than spaghetti on a plate. Now, especially the urban area has the chance of being thoroughly planned and reorganized – make it pedestrian and biker friendly and in turn, environmental friendly. In spite of that, the current situation is Aceh and Sri Lanka, where the rebels are active, will somewhat deters the reorganization effort. I’m sure that survival is more of an issue than the environment there.

Regardless of all these, nobody wants the disaster to happen in the first place. But we don’t have the ability to control the world. Thus, we will have to do the best out of the situation. We need adapt to the aftermath and look for the silver lining behind the dark clouds. (If you are in Ann Arbor, I'll understand if there is no silver lining to be seen. For goodness sake, I am yet to see Ann Arbor's Sun this year!)

So, stop whining and start working. At the same time, stop making foolish statements like this is God's punishment on us or to the unbelievers. Stop blaming everybody else. The fact is, shit happens. Period.

p/s - an interesting blog concerning the tsunami and the bureaucracy surrounding the ongoing aid.

For those that wasted their winter break, I hope you are jealous of me.


Somewhere near Key Largo, the largest key in Florida. The photo sucks since the real thing was far better. The ocean was true, clear turquoise, the clouds were cleanly white and the sky was magnificiently blue. To experience it is to be there. No word nor picture is able to describe atmosphere.

However, one t-shirt tries to say it all:


Up close and personal:


It was so much different than Ann Arbor. Here currently, it's all gloomy.

p/s - lokitorrents.com is being sued. I wonder if SuprNova.org is facing the same issue.

pp/s - I've ordered my first book of the year through Amazon.org - In Praise of Slowness: How A Worldwide Movement Is Challenging the Cult of Speed. I first found it while browsing a bookstore down in Miami.

Well, it is not actually my first book since I bought a set of accounting texts earlier but I'm content to say academic stuff doesn't count. Also, along with the book, World of Warcraft. There goes another 70 bucks.

What do these photos remind you of?


See the three bums on the right? From the left, Heng Keyn, Satchi and goddamned bloody Mike. Not that it matters since you can't see their faces.

I had two tall cups of cold chocolate shake under the Floridian Sun against the Atlantic wind here! w00t!:


Both were taken along the same stretch of road. It's Ocean Drive/Deco Drive.

And back to the question. What do these photos remind you of? For me, here's a hint:

"Eh, fuck you, man! Who put this thing together? Me, that's who! Who do I trust? Me!

No idea? It's from Scarface! If you haven't seen the classic yet, go watch it. Now. Pronto!

p/s - ExxonSecrets via WorldChanging. Correlation is not association but fact is still fact.

pp/s - Greenpeace's Rainbow Warrior is helping Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors without Borders) in Sumatra.

p3/s - some on the net are saying that the tsunami was caused by global warming. Ridiculous. The weather has nothing to do with cause of the tsunami. Nor does December 26th is cursed. Stop acting like a fool.

p4/s - Six Apart, owner of Typepad and Movable Type, acquired LiveJournal earlier this week. Let the War of the Blog begins! Via Om Malik on Broadband.

Soon after the confusion began to subside, aid from various directions started to pour in. One of the first to offer help is the United States with the initial aid of $15 million. $15 million is minute when compared to the devastation of the disaster. An official from the United Nations, Jan Egeland was swift to call the US and other industrialized nations stingy. The Challenge has an illustration that reflects the UN official’s opinion.

A few sides, in particular Fox News, were quick to retaliate but nonetheless, as a direct result from such remark, US aid rose to $35 million and shortly, promised a further $350 million of aid. That is a 200-fold of increase. After the increase on US part, the US and the UN, as mentioned in CNN, seem to be best of friends. Who wouldn't be best of friends with $350 million eh?

While I was in Florida, a DJ over the radio said that he is disappointed by affected Asian countries requesting for help all the while these countries are the ones that are giving the US headache. With his tone, he seemed to be a little bit ignorant of geography and was trying to generalize on all things Asian. Yet, in a certain light, he is right. The world is expecting too much of the US.

I don’t think the world should expect too much from the US. Though all of us are interrelated one way or the other, the US does not owe anything to the world (except their debt. Hah!) and the world cannot possibly expect the US to lead everything. We must understand that the US has its own constraints; politically and financially.

Already, some in the US are saying that the $350 million is too much and might prevent future aid to other needy regions. This worry is justified no matter how badly the tsunami hit the countries of the Indian Ocean.

And if the US is offering aid, as it is the case right now, the US certainly seeks something in return or it was under pressure.

One other thing that catches my ears concerns Al-Qaeda and the Islamists in general. While driving in Orlando, or was it Miami or the Keys, a friend said that we don’t see these terrorists that fought in the name of Islam offering any help towards the victim of the tragedy. He further argued that these terrorists are only interested in bashing the US and not for the betterment of Muslims.

Not that I am fond of the terrorists but deep in my heart, I was trying to disagree. I can’t concur with the ways of the terrorists but some aspects of their struggle do sound acceptable, however misguided their actions are. Yet, I couldn’t find a point to counter his suggestion.

Another friend offered a different perspective. He said that we might not know whether the Islamists are offering help to the victims. Really, he said, there is no reason for them to publicize their help while the authority is looking for them. I hope this is the case.

But still, despite Muslims are one the heaviest hit, rich Gulf Muslim countries are doing too little to help. I do realize that these Gulf states are not from the first world but their income from the high oil price is certainly tremendous. These Gulf states need to offer more if they don’t want to let idea of Muslim brotherhood turns into a myth.

Also, there seems to be a fight for influence at the other end of the world. Both India and the US seem to be trying to outdo each other in Sri Lanka – both are sending ships and soldiers to help Sri Lanka. One can only speculate the sincerity of some of these aids.

And if what my friend said about the terrorists helping out quietly is indeed the case, it is a politically game. Even Collins Powell has said that all the aids the US are handing out might improve their image among the Muslims.

Nevertheless, I do believe a lot of givings, especially by volunteers from all around the world, are sincere. Like what was said in one of the interviews done by CNN, there is still good in this world.

Regardless of the event, I had without doubt better time in Florida compared to the people in Asia. The sun was bright, the sky was blue, and the water was clear and turquoise particularly at the Florida Keys. The wind was both strong and graceful at the same time.


This was taken at South Beach in Miami and this is my current desktop background.

p/s - The Bear suggests an alternative way to help the affected countries. It will not help the victims directly but it helps nonetheless.

pp/s - satellite photos of Aceh and Sri Lanka by DigitalGlobe. Check out the photo analysis.

I contributed some monetary support to the American Red Cross' effort for the tsunami victim via Amazon.com. It's not much but regretfully, that is what I can afford at the moment. But truly, money is not everything.

My neighbor's friend is doing more than what I have done. He is currently in Sri Lanka and is offering manpower (he is currently reading medic in the UK) to improve the situation in the devastated paradise. His website is at http://www.kilimedical.com/. There are pictures of victims on site.

Please donate to help. There are various channels to do this. A simple browse through the internet should lead you to some reputable sites. If you need a hint on where to start, Wikipedia has a wonderful list of ongoing efforts for the tsunami victims.

Beware however of fraud. If you are unable to differentiate between a real effort and fraud page, simply ignore the less convincing organization and furnish instead to any reputable organization like the American Red Cross or the UNHCR.

If for some reason you don't believe the United Nations due to some political belief, there are other organizations but be sure that the page URL starts with https, not simply http. Notice the letter s behind the http - an URL with https is much more secure than a typical page. This also applies to online shopping. You may donate to pages that fail to have a secure page but the risk of fraud is higher one way or the other.

If you are interested in donating to the effort in Malaysia, the Malaysian media The Star has a page for that purpose. But if it were up to me, I rather have you donate to relief bodies in Indonesia or Sri Lanka. Those nations are the ones that truly need help. But who am I to say. I'm not directly affected and those that are affected are feeling the pain all the same.

p/s - the UN has a pdf file on contribution report.