I saw The Day After Tomorrow the day before yesterday with two friends. I was shocked to find out that the ticket price has considerably been raised. I guess inflation is everywhere now.

Enough economics.

The movie was entertaining though the effects of global warming were exaggerated. Then again, the director himself has said that this movie is for entertainment, not for some meteorology class. But the best thing is, I now understand how the movie serves as a really good conduit for the green cause. Before I watched the movie, I thought the movie is just some other movie that runs parallel with the green's concerns. I was wrong as it was more than that.

The reason why The Day After Tomorrow is useful in creating awareness among the masses is how Professor Jack Hall - played by Dennis Quaid - describes that global warming could trigger a colder climate in a fictional UNFCCC (that, err, for United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the one responsible for meetings of the Parties related to the Kyoto Protocol in the real world) in a snowing New Delhi. This is an irony that has been well-manipulated by the grays to discredit the greens on matters of global warming. In a larger sense, the movie tries to link global warming with a wider problem of accelerated climate change, one of the few things that the grays are trying to disprove.

All other parts of the movie are pure exaggeration. Nevertheless, the movie does provide as glimpse of what humanity will have to endure even when the effects of global warming occur in a very gradual manner. Currently, the frequency and the amplitude of natural disasters related to the climate have been going up but none are as devastating as in the movie of course. Jeremy Legett's The Carbon War has also implied that we are seeing an increasing thread of climate related natural disasters' severity.

Another noteworthy scene in the movie, of the most ironic thing considering the current era of Pax-Americana, is the American refugee camps. However, this picture might not be far away and actors will not be the Americans, but the citizens of the Pacific islanders and others small island-nations all around the world. These small pacific island-nations to my knowledge are currently lobbying the Australian government to accept any refugee related to the rising of the sea level. The global warming refugee scene is real as far as these poor islanders are concerned. The Australian government has been only unhelpful in recent negotiations.

All in all, the movie is informative and entertaining if you know to how to filter the information. There are some good jokes too. The special effect is gorgeous. Good for vanity, one of the lead actors, Jake Gyllenhaal, playing as Sam Hall, Jack Hall’s son, wear a Michigan shirt in a scene. This is probably a testimony of Ann Arbor’s political greenness.

Unfortunately, the worst part of the movie is where the word, "To Manchester United" is heard. Thank God by the end of the movie, Old Trafford would probably be under more than 15 meters of snow.

You should go watch the movie. You won’t be disappointed. I dare say it is better than the Matrix’s two pathetic sequels.

And after watching the movie, you should realize, first and foremost, the moral is we need to act now rather than later.

Should we remind ourselves of the soldiers and the civilians that fell or the players that played the pawns?

For the first quarter according to Bank Negara (Malaysian central bank for you non-Malaysians), Malaysia’s gross domestic product has grown for 7.6%. That is quite high and it definitely reminds me of the days during the Asian boom when Malaysia and a few others Southeast Asian countries earned the Asian tigers nick. Back in those days, Malaysia had consistently grown for more than 7.0% annually.

But of course, this is nothing compared to China, which is growing at almost 10%. Then again, China has only recently started to develop its economy. In contrast, I have read a report somewhere that states a country in Africa has a growth rate of about 70% - my guess, there is not even a toilet bowl there.

Forget about the toilet and let us concentrate on a few things that caught my eyes. Actually there are only two things. First:

The underlying fundamentals will continue to accord flexibility for monetary policy to support stronger economic activities, without creating inflationary pressures.

What flexibility? The Ringgit is pegged to the Dollar! Bank Negara is obliged to buy or sell the US Dollar in order to keep the exchange rate fixed at a certain rate. There is little room for maneuvering when it comes to monetary policy.

Secondly:

Interest rates can remain low for some time to come to support the growth momentum.

That sounds totally like Alan Greenspan. I am starting to wonder if all central bankers speak the same language.

Earlier today, one of the leaders of Islamic separatist in southern Thailand has been quoted saying that he has given up the idea of an independent state. His word, of which I am sure, was approximately translated to English from Malay:

This is the age of globalization. The world has moved on and there is no more room for separatism.

I have nothing but respect for the separatist leader. This is the wisdom that every other separatist movement the Aceh people, the MILF, the ETA, the IRA, the Quebecois and probably all around the world lack given the situation today. Though I am sympathetic of my fellow Muslim Malay brothers’ cause, I cannot help but feel their struggle is hopeless.

These southern Thai states lack the resources to develop their states alone and the political muscle to defend its interest just like East Timor. Though I am a green and in turn an advocate of decentralization, I feel an independent East Timor is a mistake. To support my view, East Timor, being small and powerless, has frequently been bullied by Australia in matter concerning its southern maritime border.

Even if they managed to break away from the Kingdom of Thailand and formed an independent state consisted of the Thai Malay states of Yala, Narathiwat and Pattani, they will probably be too dependent on Thailand or on their cultural ally, the Federation of Malaysia. Therefore, given a hypothetical scenario of independence, their political freedom in my opinion will be fairly limited relative to other stable sovereign nations. In the long run, these states will probably rejoin Thailand or become the members of the Malaysian Federation.

To Wan Kadir Che Man, the separatist leader, here is for you - hail to common sense.

p/s - Bye bye Houllier.

pp/s - James Lovelock and nuclear power. Via GreenSpin Watch and The Challenge.

This just in. One of the ships involved in the accident is a tanker carrying almost 300 000 tons of crude oil. Initial report indicates no leak.

And thank God, it is not the tanker that sunk. Else, it would be ugly.

p/s - here we go again. With the barometer is falling fast, a strong storm is likely. Let's hope it's not worse than or as bad as Friday's storm.
pp/s - tornado in Genesee country, Michigan. Where the hell is Genesee country? The report says it is near Flint and Saginaw. Quite close. Via arborblogs.com

It turns out that yesterday storm was devastating to some level. Three deaths were reported and a wider power loss occurred in Michigan. The fact that the University suffered a few power disruptions that lasted a few seconds might come from the fact that the University has its own power station.

Associated Press reported the storm affects almost the whole Midwest region. Iowa was hit the hardest. It is just a pity it was not Ohio or else, Michigan would probably be jumping up and down.

Ann Arbor News reported that several roads were closed due to flooding. Other cities nearby also suffered the same problem and Chelsea was put under tornado watch.

On weather.com, as in today, the situation in Ann Arbor has been relegated from flood watch to flood warning.

But the best thing is, the sky turned green. And we can look forward for another storm tomorrow. I hope it is not as bad as Friday’s.

For today, it looks like its going to be really cloudy and with strong wind. And boy, what a publicity stunt for the movie The Day After Tomorrow.

There was a crazy and strong storm just now in Ann Arbor.



I stood something like 30 to 40 meters from the trees. Notice how much the trees swayed! Well, maybe it doesn't look like it was bad but it was! And look at this, roughly thirty minutes later:


There was even a power disruption that lasted a few second! According to Common Monkeyflower, there was even a tornado in Chelsea!

P/s - there is an Environmental Defense meetup this Wednesday at Zingerman's but I don't know whether I want to attend or not, yet.

From Greenpeace USA:

The Bush administration's attempt to use an obsolete "sailormongering" law to prosecute Greenpeace failed when Judge Adalberto Jordan dismissed the charges in the midst of the trial. Shortly after the Justice Department rested its case, the judge granted Greenpeace's motion for acquittal, ruling that there was insufficient evidence to send the case to the jury.

Victory!

p/s - I watched a debate between Tony Blair and Micheal Howard the other day and it was hilarious!

pp/s - concerning the Nick Berg's beheading, there seems to be awfully lot of discrepancies. More on kuro5hin. And having seen the video and reading a lot of questions emerging from the cyberspace, I am starting to doubt the authenticity of the video. Furthermore, Bush's reputation of lying to the United Nations Security Council does not help disspell the speculations.

ppp/s - Russia has agreed to back the Kyoto Protocol! More victory!

Nowadays, almost everything concerns gas prices and inflation. I have been reading everything with great interest and actually observed the two build up since February this year. And somehow I had treated the two as separate matters happening simultaneously, coincidentally.

One day, as I was lying on bed and almost bored to death, my mind wandered to the two issues and I said “Eureka!”

Let us touch on inflation first.

Inflation occurs when there is too much money being printed by the central bank. Inflation also erodes the real value of things related to money because unfortunately and weirdly, a lot of contracts are set in nominal term. Yet, despite inflation's somewhat acidic nature, inflation is not at all that bad as long as it is not turning into hyperinflation, of which my professor describes as inflation on steroid.

The reason is because the ability to print money – the source of inflation – brings a huge benefit to the economy. One benefit of increasing the money supply is lower interest rate. (Another advantage of printing money is seignorage but only a myopic would consider this)

Larger money supply decreases the interest rate and a low interest helps stimulate investment. And at the same time, the stock market is a proxy of investment. Whatever good for the stock market is good for investment. Whatever good for the investment is good for the output.

The Federal Reserve has kept a very low interest rate for the past few months. It has been so low that cutting the interest rate further is almost impossible. This expansionary monetary policy - hand in hand with Bush’s expansionary fiscal policy - has helped the US to get out of the recession.

As a result, consumers demand more stuff; more stuff is being asked at a given price level. Now, given supply is constant, price will go up.

Let us move on to the second picture.

The crude oil price - which pretty much influences a lot of other stuff - has been going up mercilessly. A few things accredited to the rise of gas prices are China’s rapid industrialization and the US economic recovery. If this price shock is temporary, the short run aggregate supply should go up and then return to more or less its previous level as what had happened during the oil crisis in the 70s. This happens with the assumption of all things being constant, of course.

But, a recent report by Reuters suggests that high gas prices might be a permanent instead of a temporary phenomenon. This is consistent with the expansion of the aggregate demand. Plus, our voracious appetite for gas and the decreasing supply of gas probably tops up the effect of greater aggregate demand on prices.

And all the time, we are complaining about inflation and gas prices but I believe we are barking on the wrong tree. Rather, we should be whining on over-expansion that is happening, probably, on all fronts.

This growth is not sustainable. It is clear that supply can no longer keep up with demand and in some instances, supply is dropping. Thus, we must slow down before hell breaks loose.

And you know what could have slowed down the growth and prevented all of these nonsense?

I bet my head on externalities of the now nearly defunct Kyoto Protocol. But no! Somebody says the Protocol would limit economic growth.

Well, I say have fun with your growth and your $2/gallon gas.

The Seat of the Revolution has a post concerning vehicles with mileage worse than Ford’s Model-T.

Funny isn’t it?

After almost a century of technological progress, a few things still do not improve. Shame on the automotive industry.

Thank to the free market, the invisible hand is finally punishing the real evildoers. This new oil crisis might finally call for new and better standard for the monstrous and ugly SUVs and other irresponsibly inefficient vehicles.

p/s - removed visited and notable section to some other page.
pp/s - currently high on Nelly Furtado's Powerless after seeing her performed the song at the 2004 Juno Award. The song seems to talk about our individualism and its erosion; how the mainstream media is trying to impose values on us. I don't know but the more I think of reality TV, of the media, of the apparatchiks, the more disgusted I am, the more I appreciate this song, the more I appreciate my freedom. And to the RIAA, you guys suck.

After much delay, ReMag 2 is out.
Check it out.

The work on ReMag 3 has just started and we are looking for contribution. If you are a Malaysian student and are interested in contributing, email me at mnoorsha [at] umich [dot] edu. If you are not a Malaysian and are still interested in contributing, just email me. I will improvise; the rules are not written in stone.

It has been 35 years since the worst racial riot occurred in Malaysia. At least 184 Malaysians were found dead on that day. Wikipedia has a short description of what the May 13 Incident was all about.

Looking back in time, Malaysia has gone far in achieving racial harmony. I can't deny this but I fear that racial harmony is not enough. The harmony in Malaysia actually depends on the suppression of free speech. This suppression does not solve the racial tension but it merely delays the day when it is supposed to explode.

Because of this, Malaysia actually depends on pseudo-harmony rather than a real harmony.

A real harmony lives without any kind of restriction. A real harmony does not need suppression of free speech. A real harmony does not need a law to impose harmony. A pseudo-harmony on the other hand does need an artificial mechanism to prevent racial tension.

With a mechanism to suppress free speech in place, the underlying reasons that continue to divide Malaysia along racial line will never be addressed properly. The inability to discuss the matter as it should be will be the undoing of the law that tries to impose this pseudo-harmony. Without the ability to discuss on the issue, distrust will always be there because a simple understanding between one and another is simply hard to reach. One cannot understand somebody when that somebody is being silenced.

With free speech, dialogues are possible and the real issues could be addressed without the fear of being detained for committing thought crime by the thought police. Without free speech, Malaysia would never reach a real kind of harmony. With this thought police around, free speech and freedom in general will always be a privilege instead of a right.

As long as free speech is not our right, a real harmony will always be out of any Malaysian in Malaysia grasp. And as long as we live in a pseudo-harmony, we will always recognize ourselves as Malay, Chinese, Indian or God knows what else instead of as Malaysian. Finally, as we will recognize ourselves along racial line, the next May 13 is bound to happen all over again. It is just a matter of when.

Earlier, some time around January or February this year, the USD exchange rate took a nose dive and became very weak. A weak USD should, would or could increase export because a weak USD means local goods are made cheaper relative to foreign goods. This would make the local consumers to switch from foreign to local goods. Also, foreigners' demand for local goods should rise. This directly means that import should fall and export should rise, resulting in lower/bigger trade deficit/surplus.

However, quite the contrary, instead of being reduced, the US trade deficit continues to grow. Currently, the trade deficit is at a record breaking $46 billion. According to an AFP report:

"It probably suggests the US dollar has not depreciated enough over the last couple of years to stabilize the external balances"

That is the easy explanation to why the trade deficit does not follow the marcoeconomics theory.

Economics is an easy science, isn’t it? When something doesn’t go with the theory, let’s assume we have a can opener.

But of course, despite the notorious term of ceteris paribus (a latin term which means all things equal), there are other reasons that need to be considered. Other then AFP, both CNN Money and Reuters state that the high crude oil price helps fuel the trade deficit.

This sounds a good explanation, I guess, because oil does seem to have a low elasticity of demand. A low elasticity of demand translates to the phrase “a huge increase price would not affect demand greatly”. I don't see people quit driving their car despite seeing the rise in oil price.

This makes me wonder - how high does the oil price need to go until demand for oil actually falls substantially?

p/s - The US registers a budget surplus for April.
pp/s - propaganda against H2 via Seat of the Revolution.
ppp/s - for those of you who are interested in seeing the Nick Berg beheading video, it can be found here and here. Courtesy of Wikipedia. Be warned, it is graphic. I hope justice will get those bastards.

This piece of news confirms my sighting. The cicada invasion has begun.
The funny thing is, I saw only one of it, not thousands of them.

I've switched back to Haloscan. It turns out, Blogger's new commenting system offers limited free service when compared to Haloscan.

And, just now at approximately 1800 hours, I think I saw a cicada. This is bad news. The invasion has begun.

It looks harmless but, Robin, to the Batmobile! Hurry! Gotham needs us! I mean, Annarbour needs us!

Ajax Amsterdam 2 - 0 NAC Breda. The 29th title baby! I am currently celebrating Ajax's victory at Soccerpages.

At the same time, Arsenal beat Fulham to still stay unbeaten for the whole season while Manchester F-United is officially third whatever happens after this.

In Spain, Valencia has its hand on the crown.

Fenerbahce rules Turkey.

Red Star Belgrade is the new Serbian champion.

Werder Bremen has unseated Bayern Munich in Germany.

In Italy, AC Milan will probably win the Serie A despite AS Roma being on Milan's ass.

And finally, from Russia to Portugal, Porto - Monaco will be the one match to rule them all.

But let's forget about that and let's celebrate this glorious day. From Ajax.nl:

Een enorme mensenmassa was zondagavond op de been om landskampioen Ajax te huldigen op het Leidseplein. De spelers van Ajax gingen samen met de supporters volledig uit hun dak. Johnny Heitinga, de talentvolle verdediger die zo goed terugkwam van een zware blessure, kon het allemaal maar nauwelijks bevatten. Hier krijg je kippenvel van, en tranen in je ogen.

I have no idea what does that mean but who cares? We won! We are the champion!


Ajax Kampioen van Nederland!
p/s - Louis van Gaal, the legendary Ajacied that brought the European Cup to Amsterdam in 1995 and currently Ajax's technical director, has been hinted to replace Ranieri at Chelsea according to a report at ESPN's Soccernet.com. What is this? Last year, we had the Italian having a Dutch fetish. This year, the English is longing for Dutch fetish. Sheesh...
But if van Gaal switches to Chelsea, of I hope he won't, I'll switch my allegiance from Arsenal to Chelsea in the English Premier League. For God's sake, it's Louis van Gaal!

pp/s - I've dumped Haloscan in favor of Blogger's new commenting system. Well, there goes my plan to move to Movable Type. Evhead rocks!

The gas prices in Ann Arbor seem to have taken a rest today but yesterday, on average it went higher by a few cents when compared to the day before. On that day, Shell and BP probably had the highest price. I got picture of it for you!


Can't wait to see the day when the average gas price hits $3.00 per gallon. Why am I excited? So that I could see more of this:


And yeah:

So what should we be doing? Here's a hint: We can neither drill nor conquer our way out of the problem. Whatever we do, oil prices are going up. What we have to do is adapt.

It's Krugman on gas prices. To my understanding, the crux is, the demand curve is shifting up and the supply curve is going down.

Alternative energy now!

The gas prices here are crazily high. The last time I checked, it was around $1.95 per gallon. The lowest was probably $1.85 per gallon and that was in Ypsilanti. I can't imagine the gas price in California; it has probably long passed beyond the $2.00 per gallon benchmark. I believe the cheapest gas price would be in Indiana, somewhere near Michigan City.

Earlier this week, Reuters reported that the OPEC President Purnomo Yusgiantoro believed there is an oversupply of oil in the market. Of course, Saudi Arabia and a few others oil producing nations have been saying the same thing in the past few months.

I on the other hand am not so convinced. Seeing the rising gas price certainly signals shortage of supply. Saying otherwise is anything but the truth unless the traditional downward sloping demand and the upward sloping supply curves are somehow wrong.

There are only three ways price could go up; the increase of the generic demand curve while everything is constant, the fall of the generic supply curve while the demand curve is unchanged or when both of the previous cases happen at the same time.

At the same time, despite the talk of inflation, I believe inflation has nothing to do with this; the only explanation is the supply and demand graph.

Therefore, OPEC is not telling the truth, or at least they are not telling the whole story. In my opinion, there are only two viable explanations and one conspiracy theory.

One, the quantity of crude oil is fast declining and they do not want to alarm the world. And thus, they are keeping saying the opposite of the obvious - there is an old saying that goes if you keep telling a lie, it becomes the truth - there is an oversupply of crude oil.

Second, OPEC is simply trying to capitalize on its monopoly power by charging the consumers above its marginal revenue. Before the rise of price, I am sure OPEC charges the consumers above its marginal revenue. Right now, if the second scenario is true, I am sure that they are increasing the distance between their marginal revenue and demand curve and thus, gaining great profit.

The conspiracy theory is that the Muslims countries, which make up the majority power in OPEC, jack up the price in order to punish the US. Yet, this sounds too fictionous if you ask me.

In any case, we the environmentalists are laughing our ass out seeing those SUV drivers pumping up the increasingly expensive gas into their tanks. And hey, it is fun to utilize the economic theory that describes the income and substitution effect of these SUV drivers. It is economics at work for us and cruel humor to savor by us.

Alternative energy now!

AFC Ajax Amsterdam is one point away from its 29th Eredivisie title. Currently, with only two more matches to go, Ajax has six points clear of the nearest team, PSV Eindhoven.
Feyenoord lingers at third and has no chance of gaining a higher spot.

As the season closes to its finale, all in all, it has been in every direction a disappointing season relative to last year performance. The primary cause of letdown is Ajax failure to qualify beyond the Champions’ League group stage. This season, Ajax was grouped with Celta, Club Brugge and Inter Milan. It was supposed to be an easy group and Ajax should have had no trouble passing through the stage with a breeze. However, strength written on paper is apparently different from strength shown on the field. Ajax was humiliated by Celta and Club Brugge. As a result, Ajax failed to meet up with most pundits’ expectation and crashed out of the Champions’ League after six painful matches. This however probably shouldn’t have been a shock since during the Champions’ League qualifiying stage, Ajax couldn’t capitalize on the much unknown Grazer AK of Austria. In fact, Ajax could have easily missed out the Champions’ League entirely.

Another source of frustration is Ajax inconsistency in the local arena. In the Amstel Cup, the Dutch’s do-it-or-die competition, Ajax was defeated by NAC Breda and there was nothing to rue about. During that match, Ajax looked like some team from some unknown Dutch region. In the Eredivisie itself, of lately, Ajax failed to win against even one of the worst Dutch teams. Perhaps, the fact that Feyenoord has a problem of itself and PSV losing Kezman, Robben and a few other keys players to booking and injury has helped Ajax secures the first place. Ajax inconsistency is further exemplified when Ajax watched helplessly as it once 12 point lead was reduced to merely six point lead in the last few matches.

Nevertheless, looking at the bright side, this might be what Ajax needs in order to keep its player from leaving. All players, excluding Trabelsi according the media should be staying for at least another season or two. Trabelsi is probably leaving for Manchester F-United once his contract is done.

Futhermore, this year, Ajax found two new faces that I consider as Ajax new great asset. They are youngster Wesley Sneijder and the Romanian Nicolae Mitea. Sneijder has already been debut in the Dutch national team and will be playing under Dick Advocaat for Euro 2004 in Portugal.

In Rotterdam and Eindhoven, two major transfers are on the way. The PSV youngster Arjen Robben is set for Abrahamovich’s Chelsea, or rather Chelski while Feyenoord winger Robin van Persie is set for Arsenal. The prolific PSV striker Mateja Kezman is rumored to be linked with Fulham. Unless PSV and Feyenoord gets new players, the loss of their influencial players will hurt them.

In conclusion, I expect a tougher Ajax next season; an Ajax that is capable of defending/capturing the 2004/05 crown inspite of a few major disappointments this season. In the mean time, I will be crossing my finger in hope of Ajax will at least earn a point against NAC Breda this weekend or against Willen II Tilburg the week after.

In any case, this year Amsterdam Tournament will feature Ajax Amsterdam (obviously), Arsenal FC, Panathinaikos and River Plate.

p/s - Porto has beaten Deportivo La Coruna to advance to the Champions' League Final. Porto will face either Chelsea or Monaco. From the look of it, the Final would probably be the Battle of Iberia. Isn't it beautiful to see no Italian team in the Final?

Somebody from the University called me to tell me that I have to take up the spring semester if I want to maintain something. I do not want to take up the semester because I have anticipated to go to Europe sometimes around May or June.

I really want to go to Europe but, I have to take the semester.

Therefore, all I can say that this is a pure unexpected crap. Well, it looks like my only choice is the dreaded labor economics.

I was fully looking forward for a non-stress summer but, OMG, shit happens way too often.

Capitalism is the unequal distribution of wealth. Communism is the equal distribution of poverty.

I dedicate this post to Keynes and Hayek on this Labor Day. They saved us from socialism and communism.